Today is the day that the Tesla Model 3 will be launching and Tesla is gearing up for the major release. In this event, we hope to receive many details as to how Tesla is handling the vast amount of orders and their plans to get the Model 3 to a majority of the reservation holders in the next 12 months. It is extremely important that Tesla is able to meet all the deadlines that they have committed to as the car is one of the most awaited and wanted in this past year. But, we do not publicly know how many people have reserved the car. So, we investigated.
Every day, the number of Model 3 reservation holders is going up. As of now, if one were to reserve a Model 3, the estimated delivery date is late 2018. This is constantly changing as many months ago it was early 2018.This date estimate is given based on the fact that everything remains on schedule and people are getting their vehicles when expected.
But a more accurate date could be determined based on the number of vehicles reserved. Once someone reserves a Model 3, a reservation number is generated that determines what place you are in the line. We tried reserving one and the code came out as RN109003735. I immediately canceled the reservation as this was just for test purposes, thus, that code is not active. The last confirmation that we had was for 373,000 reservations back in May 2016. Later that year, based on some of Tesla’s earnings reports, there were rumors that reservations of the vehicle were well over 600,000 which made sense based on increasing demand. If we subtract this number from our code, we get a reservation number of RN108403735. Based on proper estimation, we can definitively say that the first reservation number should have been RN108000000 making it over 1,003,735 reservations so far. This is a record and gives us a more realistic delivery date for new reservations.
Even if we consider a new delivery to be done in December 2018 based on Tesla’s website, giving us 17 months, Tesla would have to be constantly producing over 55,000 thousand vehicles per month. This year, they only plan to commit 25,000 vehicles pushing the delivery date for new reserved vehicles even further back. Currently, Tesla produces between 8000-10000 vehicles per month so getting to 55,000 is a challenge. Tesla has also committed to producing 500,000 vehicles by the end of next year. But, once again, we will have much more information after the event.